Newzoo: 2026 console revenue would be flat year-on-year without Grand Theft Auto 6
Newzoo’s market research reveals that console revenue growth in 2026 depends entirely on Grand Theft Auto 6’s release. According to the research firm’s director of market intelligence Emmanuel Rosier at Gamescom 2026, console platform revenue is projected to grow 5.1% year-on-year to reach $46.9 billion. However, this growth relies almost entirely on GTA 6, which is expected to increase full-game spending on console platforms by 17.5%. Without Rockstar Games’ blockbuster release, the console market would experience flat revenue compared to 2025.
Rosier identified GTA 6 as the primary driver ensuring any market expansion for consoles in 2026, with Nintendo Switch 2 identified as a secondary contributing factor to the sector’s performance. The findings underscore the video game industry’s heavy dependence on flagship triple-A titles to generate growth, with a single release capable of determining whether an entire platform category achieves revenue gains or stagnation on a year-on-year basis.